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THE CHANGING STATUS QUO IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND EASTMED

The Middle East and the East Mediterranean are changing. With the collapse of Syria, the demise of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran in turmoil, the Shia dominated resistance against Israel has changed the balance of power in the region. Other parties are scrambling to fill the vacuum. Among the most assertive players are Israel and Turkey. While the two countries had a relationship of sorts, just this week President Erdogan called it quits; PM Netanyahu reciprocated by recognizing the Turkish genocides of the Armenian, Assyrian and Greek populations of Asia Minor in the aftermath of World War 1. Over the last few years a trilateral strategic alliance has been building between Israel, Cyprus and Greece based on energy: gas exploration in the EastMed and the underseas energy cable connecting the electrical grids. This has not been without its challenges. 


Sep. 5, 2025 JNS TV: "This Move By Turkey May Be The Most Dangerous Shift in The Middle East Yet...". (If you caught that NATO thing, here's the clarification (link)). 

Part of the strategic alliance is the IMEEC plan, the new India-Mideast-Europe trade corridor. The plan is an alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative. Read more about the IMEEC in previous posts on this issue (link).

External reading
JNS: "New India-Mideast-Europe corridor represents a connective boon for Israel", by Uzay Bulut

"The corridor will likely include three major Mediterranean Sea ports: Haifa in Israel, Piraeus in Greece and Trieste in Italy. For Israel, the IMEC represents more than an economic opportunity; it is a pathway to redefine its strategic regional status and geopolitical alignments (more). 

In the shorter term Israel is engaged in preventing Turkey from taking over more swathes of Syria than it already has done in the aftermath of defeating the former President Assad. The rapprochement between Israel and Turkish was bound to fail at some point when their mutual interests stopped aligning. That moment has obviously now come. 


The above X message from  Israeli strategist, Shay Gal argues that the continued Turkish occupation of the northern part of Cyprus is Israel's problem as well. The strategy behind the argument is clear. Israel is inserting itself in what is essentially a cold war between Cyprus, Greece and Turkey, so as to solidify the trilateral alliance with a common enemy.

External reading
Geotrends: "Lion out of necessity: Shay Gal on Türkiye, Houthis, and Mediterranean deterrence", by Athanasios Katsikidis

"Israeli strategic advisor Shay Gal, an expert in crisis management and defense, exposes the hidden tensions of the Mediterranean. From Türkiye’s proxy maneuvers to Houthi threats, he maps deterrence and survival" (more)

Strategist Shay Gal is also going after Turkey for its geopolitical coup involving its 'imaginary maritime border' with Libya, arguing it "is not just a Greek issue - it directly targets Israel and Egypt, and must be removed". Which makes more sense than his argument over the Turkish occupation of Cyrus (more)

There are increasing reports of Israelis moving to Cyprus and Greece, investing in and acquiring businesses and real estate. The Greek Government's Golden Visa policy is geared towards attracting such foreign investments from Israel and elsewhere. 

The policy however has driven up the local cost of living to an almost unbearable extent. It is a development that bears watching closely. But it of course a domestic Greek policy issue. 


Sep. 3, 2025 Fidias Podcast: A New Israel in the Mediterranean? - Dimitri Lascaris.

In  Cyprus the situation is different. In the videos Greek Canadian Palestinian activist Dimitris Lascaris is talking about the issue with the Cyprus member of the European Parliament, Fidias Panayiotou  and with lawyer Elina Xenophontou. 


Aug. 26, 2025 Reason to Resist: The Zionist Takeover Of Cyprus.

A poll has come out just this week suggesting that the overwhelming majority of Greeks is supporting the strategic alliance with Israel. Which is remarkable, given that traditionally the Greeks identified with the Palestinian issue on a personal level based on historical events.


The matter of the underseas energy cable connecting Israel to the EU called the 'Interconnector' (link) also plays into the equation, albeit in different way. 

External reading
EURActive: "Israel backs troubled Mediterranean power cable to Europe, amid Cyprus-Greece spat", by Sarantis Michalopoulos

"Cyprus caused shockwaves earlier this week by stating that the project is not financially sustainable under the current terms. Israel said it remains committed to the massive undersea energy cable to the EU, after Cyprus argued the project needed to be renegotiated and that Greece had failed to meet its commitments under the deal" (more).

Here's an interesting debate on X about the Interconnector (in Greek) (link) 


To be clear, the trilateral alliance IL-GR-CY is not based on any cultural or religious historical connections. It's purely business, as the following issue makes clear.

The Greek Orthodox Patriarchate of Jerusalem is historically a major land owner dating back to Ottoman rule. Read here how that happened (link). A dispute has now risen over taxes the city of Jerusalem claims it is due. The Patriarchate is disputing the claim. Details here (link). 

For American readers and to avoid any misunderstandings, the Eastern Orthodox faith does not share the 'sacred covenant' that American dispensationalist sects have with Israel. Unlike Protestantism, the memory of the Ancient Church goes back all the way to Apostolic times. The first schism between Jews and Christian Jews in the year AD 90 is well documented and part of the doctrine.

Geopolitics is dirty business. It's nature is all interests, no ethics. It has always been that way. Although the post World War 2 powers tried to establish a international rules based order based on secular liberalism, it has become clear over the years this is not possible without creating a global jurisdiction, which presumes laws and law enforcement. As Immanuel Kant warned, such a governmental monopoly might well become the worst tyranny imaginable because  there is no escape.

This new world order has tried to manipulate public opinion over the decades with appeals to emotion and fake ethics. But it looks like the gig is up. We are on the cusp of a new era in world history. 

Don't pray for some new Utopia to be build on top of the ashes of the old regime! We are just coming out of centuries of Utopia building, and never before in history was so much destruction justified in the name of one Utopia or another. Rather, pray for a stable balance of power. That is the best we could hope for, this side of eternity. 

More general tweets on X on various EastMed issues:



- More on Israel, Greece, Cyprus, Turkey, IMEEC -
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