UKRAINE WAR: A FUTILE FOREIGN POLICY CRIME

The most stupid, futile war since World War 1 is coming to an end. For all intents and purposes, it is already over. There were various points in history where it could have been averted altogether (called Minsk 1 and 2) or might have been stopped from getting worse, but for the sake of warmongers and regressive Cold War throw backs whose liberal-democrat delusions dominate the day, legitimately or not so much. A child could calculate that Russia was always going to win this war, and Ukraine was always going to lose it, if only by reason of their relative strengths. A destroyed country, hundreds of thousands of dead Ukrainians and billions of treasure in the black hole of grift later, the guilty parties still don't know how to stop: here's the new plan (video, from the 3:50 mark). Viktor Orban explains the insanity at the intro of Alex's video. 


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The leader of Zelensky's party in the Ukraine Parliament, Davyd Arakhamia has brought to mind that Russia has never stopped negotiating. Russia and Ukraine were close to a deal in the spring of 2022 at the start of the war, in exchange for Ukraine's neutrality (meaning not entering NATO).

But Biden sent Boris Johnson to Kiev to block the deal, insisting that Zelensky go to war and topple Putin (or at least, that was their insane calculation). 

Davyd Arakhamia's reminder also puts to shame the unfounded narrative of Western leaders, basically a continuation of the Cold War era Domino Doctrine, that failing to stop Russia in Ukraine, means Russian expansion all over Europe. Lavrov on the issue (video).

The Russians only care about one thing: that Ukraine remains a neutral buffer state. Russia has no objections against Ukraine becoming a member of the EU. 


It's worth writing out the entire text of the above interview with Davyd Arakhamia. Here’s what he says: 

"He confirms that Russia’s principal goal for the war wasn’t to invade the whole of Ukraine but to force Ukraine to become a neutral country that would not be part of NATO: “[Russia] really hoped almost to the last moment that they would force us to sign such an agreement so that we would take neutrality.

"It was the most important thing for them. They were prepared to end the war if we agreed to, – as Finland once did, – neutrality, and committed that we would not join NATO. In fact, this was the key point. Everything else was simply rhetoric and political ‘seasoning’ about denazification, the Russian-speaking population and blah-blah-blah."

You can hear the liberal-democrat argument: Ukraine is a sovereign and independent democracy and free to choose its own alliances. Let's remind them of the Monroe Doctrine (Wiki) next time someone plans to put missiles in Cuba or anywhere within reach of US territory. I have the right to cross the street, but I still have to negotiate for it with others in traffic. 

Davyd Arakhamia continues. 

"When asked why Ukraine did not agree to this, here’s what he says: “First, in order to agree to this point, it is necessary to change the Constitution. Our path to NATO is written in the Constitution. Secondly, there was no confidence in the Russians that they would do it. This could only be done if there were security guarantees. We could not sign something, step away, everyone would relax there, and then they would [invade] even more prepared – because they had, in fact, gone in unprepared for such a resistance.

"Therefore, we could only explore this route when there is absolute certainty that this will not happen again. There is no such certainty. Moreover, when we returned from Istanbul, Boris Johnson came to Kyiv and said that we would not sign anything with them at all, and let's just fight.”

"He’s actually not being very forthright about the “no confidence in the Russians so this could only be done if there were security guarantees” claim, because from the media reports at the time in early 2022, this aspect of the deal was getting concretized. 

"It’s even still up on Ukraine’s official presidency website (link). The concept was that permanent members of the UN Security Council would be the guarantors of the deal, alongside Turkey, Germany, Canada, Italy, Poland and Israel. The issue seems to have been that those security guarantees were “greeted with skepticism” by “Western officials”, as highlighted in this WSJ piece from back then: (link)."

"So this, combined with Arakhamia’s confirmation that what really killed the deal was “Boris Johnson [coming] to Kyiv and [saying] that we would not sign anything with them at all, and let's just fight” shows that it is unequivocally the West that killed the peace deal.

"Which confirms the extremely damning responsibility of the West in this war because we’re at a stage, 20 months later, when not only has Ukraine lost a horrifying amount of men (likely hundreds of thousands of deaths) but they couldn’t dream of getting such favorable conditions in a peace deal that the West is NOW pressuring them to make. And I won’t even get into the responsibility of the West in triggering this conflict in the first place with the expansion of NATO and the transformation of Ukraine into a Western bulwark on Russia’s border…

"Will there be any reckoning? Any admission of this responsibility? Any accountability? Any change, any rethinking in order to avoid such catastrophic failures in the future? Sadly I don’t even see the first inkling of the beginning of this, especially in Europe. And this is what makes me most depressed: it shows we're institutionally set in our erroneous ways with no capability to learn, adapt and change."

The reckoning will have no wait for now, but it will come. The question is, will it ever be enough to compensate for the damage these criminals in foreign policy bureaus all over the West have done? Politically, any reasonable relationship with the Russians within our lifetime will be impossible: they will never trust the West again. Understandably so. 


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